Modern U.S. foreign policy combines elements of continuity and change compared to Donald Trump’s first administration, with a redefinition of relations with allies, while Europe must show greater responsibility and relevance in addressing security challenges, especially in the Balkans. This was emphasized during the panel “The Paradox of Power: Allies, Autonomy, and America’s New Compass” at the 2BS Forum.
Gordana Grgić, Senior Researcher and Acting Head of the Swiss and Euro-Atlantic Security Team at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies (CSS), pointed out that today’s American foreign policy is not a complete break from the past, but rather a mix of continuity and new priorities compared to Trump’s first term.
Grgić stressed that before discussing challenges, it is important to diagnose current trends. According to her, developments over the past nine months show a continuation of certain patterns from Trump’s first term, but also significant shifts and intensifications of some trends.
The first major change Grgić highlighted is the shift of U.S. strategic priorities from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region, with a greater emphasis on domestic security.
“This was already clear from the interim defense strategy guidelines leaked earlier this year and will be further confirmed in upcoming U.S. strategic documents. The United States is prepared to bear certain costs in Europe in order to focus on regions where it believes attention is most needed,” explained Grgić.
Speaking about the U.S. approach to allies, Grgić noted a reorientation in how Washington treats its alliances.
“Instead of the traditional emphasis on shared values and ideals, a pragmatic, almost transactional approach is increasingly apparent. Allies are now seen primarily as instruments of U.S. strategy, which represents a significant departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy,” she emphasized.
The third important aspect Grgić mentioned concerns the internal sources of U.S. foreign policy and the reorganization of key institutions.
“Everything we have known so far about the American foreign policy bureaucracy—processes, organizations, institutions, norms, and rules—is slowly being dismantled,” she said. Grgić reminded that institutions such as USAID, once key to America’s power projection, have lost their former role or are undergoing transformation. She also noted that the recent focus on the lethality of U.S. armed forces, demonstrated at the Quantico base, signals a change in rhetoric.
“Changes in American foreign policy are not only a result of international circumstances but also deep internal transformations of political priorities and institutions,” Grgić concluded.
Edward P. Joseph, Lecturer and Senior Fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, stated that a key question for Europe is how to demonstrate its relevance in international relations given the different and often demanding expectations from Washington.
“The most important point we keep returning to is expectations. The key question hovering over this conference is: How can Europe make itself relevant in light of very firm and often different expectations from Washington?” Joseph said.
Joseph emphasized that the answer lies in Europe finally taking responsibility for the Balkans.
“This is the most feasible task. Europe is not capable of resolving the biggest security challenge, the aggressive policy of Russia on its own because the capacities of the U.S. and NATO, primarily American, are necessary. But Europe can face the challenges in the Balkans. It has not done so until now, and this is something expected not only by the current American administration but by all previous administrations since the 1990s,” he stressed.
Joseph pointed out that Europe has missed opportunities in the past, especially due to indecisiveness regarding enlargement and hesitation in confronting political problems in the region.
“These are not problems like those posed by Russia, no country in the Balkans has nuclear weapons nor is an energy superpower. These are problems that can be solved. Europe must take responsibility,” he emphasized.
Joseph noted that it is important to distinguish Washington’s enduring expectations from those that were “dramatic and often unpredictable” during the Trump administration.