Program of the 13th 2BS Forum

Concept Note of the 14th 2BS Forum

October 3-4, 2024

World in Disorder: Turning Adversity into Opportunity

FRACTURED WORLD: Battleground Echoes

As war in Ukraine and conflict in Gaza continue, alongside rising tensions in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, our world appears increasingly turbulent. In the face of persistent crises, feelings of helplessness can overshadow efforts to safeguard our societies, uphold principles, and preserve cherished values. Finding innovative approaches to protect our communities, maintain order, and defend our core beliefs becomes an ever more daunting challenge amidst this evolving landscape of uncertainty and unrest. Strategic discussions among NATO allies are intensified in the period of global security challenges of a military scale, resurgence of terrorism, and especially pronounced dissemination of disinformation and foreign interference in the increasingly complex technological, digital, and information landscape.

GUIDING QUESTIONS:

What critical challenges persist in addressing hostile threats and harmful actors—both from abroad and within—who aim to weaken democratic systems? Amid domestic hurdles and geopolitical strains, how steadfast and enduring is the transatlantic pledge to uphold democratic principles and values? What can be done to reduce risks? What lessons can be drawn from the war in Ukraine and Gaza for potential future conflicts? What will the long-term impact of these wars be on the regional power balances?

BALKAN WORLD: Building Future and Security Posture Amid Geopolitical Challenges

The Western Balkans, a region entangled in complex geopolitical dynamics, face growing pressure from Russia’s and China’s strong gambits. These power plays not only heighten regional instability but also highlight the urgent need for the Western Balkans to accelerate integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. External turmoil influences internal issues like political polarization, ethnonationalism, and secessionist fervor, which are worsened by a democratic crisis and widespread disinformation fueling radical politics in the region. Amid these adversities, some but limited progress has been made, in terms of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s accession talks and Montenegro’s advances on its EU integration path. In contrast, Serbia’s political landscape regresses with its pro-Russian stance, fostering anti-Western attitudes in regional relations, by promoting the concept of the Serbian world. The region’s stability hinges on strategies for economic development, critical thinking awareness, and deeper integration into European and global frameworks.

GUIDING QUESTIONS:

How do global tensions impact the security risks associated with the regional dynamics and unresolved issues in the Western Balkans? How do Russian and Chinese ambitions, threatening to reshape the region in their favor, endanger unresolved issues in the Western Balkans and potentially undermine Western influence and stability? When will these nations secure their EU integration promises?

ALLIED WORLD: Guiding Strategic Resilience in the Face of Uncertainties

The world’s deep uncertainty makes NATO’s strategic deliberations critical arenas where the future security landscape should be secured. As allies face the daunting task of maintaining a united front against overt and covert threats, NATO’s role has been pivotal more than ever. NATO’s 75th anniversary also marks 25 years since its first post-Cold War enlargement. This is a decisive moment for forging a robust European security framework, compelling NATO leaders to critically evaluate and potentially overhaul their defense tactics to fortify the alliance’s strength.

GUIDING QUESTIONS:

The outlook of the Wahington Summit? What has NATO learned from the past to steer future strategies? Has NATO managed to implement the decisions of Madrid and Vilnius? How well prepared is NATO to face renewed threats in Europe and around the globe? The stakes are higher than ever, making this a pivotal moment for the transatlantic future.

U.S. WORLD: Europe’s Strategy Redux in a Post-Election Landscape?

In the wake of the U.S. General Elections, we are confronted with a series of analyses and predictions of potential U.S. strategic reorientation to burden shifting instead of burden-sharing. It also appears that American people are weary of endless wars and prefer to concentrate on domestic issues. What can we anticipate following the November elections? Europe faces the daunting task of recalibrating its strategic approach to navigate the unpredictable global dynamics. As transatlantic partners, Europe and the US share a common commitment to democratic values and collective security.

GUIDING QUESTIONS:

Is a redux of the U.S. strategy toward Europe truly possible? How can we ensure alignment on foreign and security policy between both sides of the Atlantic? What are the EU’s future steps?